12:45 p.m. update:
Ontario health officials have released new modelling and potential scenarios in the province's fight against COVID-19.
Officials suggest that the wave of new community spread cases appears to have peaked, but spread in long-term care homes and correctional facilities seems to be growing.
“While earlier models predicted a peak in cases in May, public health interventions, including widespread adherence to physical distancing, have accelerated the peak to now,” the modelling report said.
The new projections say that the total number of cumulative cases for the span of the outbreak is now likely less than 20,000.
It’s likely Ontario will come out of the first wave of the outbreak with fewer than 20,000 cases, much lower than the 80,000 predicted two weeks ago when 300,000 was floated as a worst-case scenario.
Dr. Matthew Anderson has said in a best case scenario, the province will need less than 400 ICU beds for COVID-19. In a 'middle case' scenario, 700 ICU beds will be needed and in a worst case scenario, 5,000 ICU beds will be needed for COVID-19.
He highlighted that the province is currently trending better than our best case scenario.
Earlier projections forecasted that between 3,000 to 15,000 people in the province could die from COVID-19 with the health measures already in place, while in a worst-case scenario, as many as 100,000 people could die without any public health measures in place.
According to new modelling released by the province, Ontario has hit its predicted COVID-19 peak early thanks to stay-at-home and physical distancing measures.
The announcement comes after the province recorded the most cases of COVID-19 in a single day.
Despite this positive news, Dr. Barbara Yaffe noted that there is "no clear answer on when we can go back to normal life."
Original story:
Ontario health officials are set to release updated COVID-19 modelling today.
The associate chief medical officer of health, Dr. Barbara Yaffe, has said the forecasts are "generally looking better," but the province is not out of the woods yet.
The last modelling was released April 3, when projections showed that 1,600 Ontarians could die and 80,000 could be infected under the current restrictions at the time. That same day, Premier Doug Ford ordered more businesses closed.
The latest data shows that there have been 10,578 confirmed COVID-19 cases in Ontario, including 553 deaths.
Previous modelling also showed that by today, under the "best case scenario," more than 1,200 people confirmed to have COVID-19 would be in intensive care units, but currently that number is at 247.
Matthew Anderson, President and CEO of Ontario Health, Adalsteinn (Steini Brown, Dean of the Dalla Lana School of Public Health at the University of Toronto, and Dr. Barbara Yaffe, Associate Chief Medical Officer of Health, will be releasing this information at a media briefing at 12:00 p.m. from Queen's Park.
Village Media will carry the livestream.
- With files from The Canadian Press
