Health systems in the region are already strained - and another spike in local COVID-19 cases two weeks from now could take a big toll on health care in the region.
Several long-term care and retirement facilities are struggling to find staff, multiple outbreaks are ongoing in hospitals, and the region's public health office has had to scale back their staffing in their call center that handles contact management- tracing and information surrounding the pandemic.
"We have hit a tipping point for the health care sector in Niagara," said the region's acting medical officer of health, Dr. Mustafa Hirji to Thorold News.
On December 26, the region, along with the rest of the province will go into a shutdown in a desperate attempt to control the steadily rising COVID-19 numbers.
Looking ahead two weeks, there are two possible scenarios;
Widespread compliance leading to less holiday gatherings, which would cut the transmission of the virus, which largely has been driven by individuals who spend time with their friends and extended family, or a large portion ignoring the rules amidst the surge in cases.
Mustafa Hirji says he is worried that the latter will become reality.
"I think some people will see this as their last chance to go out and socialize before lockdown, that will probably lead to a spike in infections," he said, pointing to Canada Day, Thanksgiving and even the U.S 'Black Friday'-events that all saw an increase in cases around two weeks later.
"That would mean we could end up with a longer lockdown. The province would have no choice if it after 4 weeks isn't seeing the benefits from lockdown, than to extend it or start looking at more stringent measures like regional travel restrictions or curfews."
Hirji said now is a critical point for residents to take the measures seriously - or risk overwhelming the already strained hospitals.
"It is critical and what determines how the future will look."
NRPH reported 79 cases on Wednesday.
