If people do not start taking measures to stop the spread of the virus, Niagara could see between 40 and 60 cases per day by the end of the month – and more Niagara residents could die from COVID-19.
That grim prediction comes from the region's acting medical officer of health after the first death linked to the virus was reported on Monday.
"As we see more cases of infection, you are going to end up with a small portion of them hospitalized, and some unfortunately passing away," Dr. Mustafa Hirji told Thorold News on Monday.
After the weekend, 37 new cases were reported in increments between 10 and 16 cases daily, counting Monday.
Around three people are currently hospitalized after contracting the virus.
Hirji said the person who passed away was an elderly person but declined to say if the person had been a resident of long-term care- or retirement home.
Three new outbreaks were reported after the weekend - one at Lundy Manor in Niagara Falls that lost at least 18 residents during a lengthy outbreak this spring.
Hirji said public health personnel is in daily contact with the homes dealing with outbreaks to provide guidance and input on infection control measures.
"Outbreaks are unfortunately inevitable. If the virus is out in the community, there is going to be a fraction of cases in people who either work in or visit the homes. From time to time you are going to end up with cases there," Hirji said, adding that he is more confident in the home's ability to manage the outbreaks more efficiently.
Niagara's daily count of new cases now sits around 10 per day, after a summer that, with some fluctuations, recorded between one and three cases daily.
Hirji said it takes longer to see a downward trend in the spread than an increase – currently driven by residents having many small-size social contacts as opposed to bigger gatherings.
Looking at the resurgence of the virus in the GTA, Hirji says it is comparable to Niagara having around 40 cases daily; which in a pessimistic, but realistic scenario could become reality in Niagara by the end of the month.
"It is time for us to really pull back from social contacts and only closely interact with members of our household, and not travel to see friends or visit attractions," Hirji said.
