With the current downward trend in COVID-19 cases in Niagara, the region could be heading for the Red zone in the next weeks - but the anticipated announcement carries a hue of worry for the region's acting medical officer of health.
Amidst declining weekly cases and increased ICU capacity, the looming threat of the mutated strains of COVID-19 has Dr. Mustafa Hirji following the new cases daily, as the so-called British, South African- and Brazilian variants have been confirmed in Ontario, and are increasing, even amidst hard restrictions in effect.
"We are still in the hundreds, but it is going up, and it is going up in a time where most of Canada is in lockdown, which illustrates how the current lockdowns aren't enough to control these variants," Hirji told regional councilors in a COVID-19 update on Friday afternoon.
While the regular variant of the virus continues to decrease, the more fast-spreading variants could send the province into an even worse wave than seen in the second wave of the Covid-pandemic, Hirji warned.
"We are almost dealing with two different viruses," said Hirji, stating that the spread of the variant could be considered another pandemic.
Examples from new modeling show that growth of the virus could start as early as March, putting high strain on ICU Capacity.
Hirji said the key to suppressing the variant is to bringing the reproductive number, also called R-number, as low as possible.
Niagara currently sits at an R-value of 0.7.
"We managed to keep it here because of lockdown, and when that lifts, we probably won't be able to maintain that, so that's a huge risk that maybe is facing us," he said.
Niagara reported 26 cases of COVID-19 on Friday.
